The benefits of an interim deal An interim deal would bridge the gap between the two-year period which the UK will have to agree withdrawal from the EU (stipulated under Article 50) and the time it takes to agree a future deal. Given the complexity of trade deal negotiations, it is unlikely we will agree our future relationship with the EU in two years. Conservative estimates say it could take 5-7 years to agree (including ratification by all 27 member states and 11 regional assemblies). Less conservative estimates put it at more than 10 years (based on Canada and the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)). If these negotiations are not completed at the end of the two-year negotiating window, then the European treaties would simply cease to apply to the UK overnight. UK trade with Europe would revert to a World Trade Organization-based relationship with substantial tariff and non-tariff barriers, and limited access to the EU market in services. Our access to European institutions such as the European Single Aviation Market (which allows UK airlines to fly over Europe) and the European Medicines Agency (which license pharmaceuticals) would be unclear. These issues could be resolved in the fullness of […]

Original source – Institute for Government

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